Essay by Shepherd Bliss on climate change and peak oil

Shepherd Bliss has contributed an essay titled, "The Four Horsemen of Industrial Society: War, Over-Population, Climate Change & Peak Oil". In it, he examines the threat of climate change and peak oil to human society and the planet, and possible responses. He compares the effects of climate change and Peak Oil on the motivations of humans to change the way society operates.Download four_horsemenshort1.doc


More on Peak Oil and Climate Protection

Note from Dave Erickson:
To add another perspective to the dialogue on the issue, I offer his book review below.

Climate Change Expert’s New Book on Oil Depletion

By Shepherd Bliss

British geologist Jeremy Leggett’s first book “The Carbon War” was described by the influential Sunday Times as “the best book yet on the politics of global warming.” Time magazine calls Leggett “one of the key players in putting the climate issue on the world agenda.” His recent book—called “Empty Tank” by its US publisher and “Half Gone” in the UK--builds on his former work as the Chief Scientist at Greenpeace UK and a decade as an international climate campaigner in order to now assert the importance of what he describes as “the oil topping point.”

Leggett links oil depletion and climate change throughout his book, sub-titled “Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe.” Over half the book is a 150-page section on “Oil Depletion Meets Global Warming.” Before moving to Greenpeace in the 1990’s, Leggett spent most of the 1980s as “a creature of Big Oil,” doing research, teaching, and consulting paid for by Shell, BP, and other oil companies. He is now CEO of the UK’s largest independent solar electric company. Leggett’s new book is perhaps the most thorough exploration yet of the relationship of oil descent and global warming, which he calls “hot air.”

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Why Peak Oil does not address the real problem

The Peak Oil concern, from the ASPO website is,..."there will not be enough oil left in the ground to permit a continuing increase in oil production." This statement indicates the belief that the hydrocarbon economy will not be sustained by cheaply extracted and processed crude oil. The concern therefore is,"shortages of these two fuels (oil and natural gas) will likely cause severe economic hardship."

The point of this observation, evidently, is that societies (particularly oil-dependent societies like the US) will need to derive their energy needs from some other source. The other source is not specified, and indeed, appears to be irrelevant, as long as it satisfies society's thirst for cheap energy. In the Peak Oil literature, it appears that the environmental effects of harvesting the new energy source should be considered. On the website,

"Prudent energy resource management must include conservation and efficiency, ecologically responsible energy production and consumption, and the development of alternative energy resources.

It is not clear how the leap is made from "we are running out of cheap energy" to "our new energy source must be ecologically responsible, etc."

There is no reason why the "no more cheap oil' argument prevents anyone who is inclined to seek energy sources such as nuclear or "deriviative" hydrocarbons, such as coal gasification, from exploiting the "crisis of cheap energy". The real problem is that burning fossil fuels is destroying the atmosphere. So we need to stop using fossil fuels not because "there is not enough oil left in the ground...", but because if we don't, the surface of the planet will be become uninhabitable.

Peak Oil and Climate Protection

The peak oil argument bothers me, and I'm not exactly sure why, although I have some ideas. I'm hoping to clarify thinking about peak oil by exploring the topic on this blog. When explaining what bothers me about peak oil, the first objection comes from Alan Strachan who asserts that the world has a permanent oil glut, meaning that if we burn all the oil and other fossil fuel we have, we'll be toast. I've posted the paper he wrote with Scot Stegeman in 2001 about this Download Permanent Oil Glut Richard Heinberg responded to Alan 9/01 re the ideas in Alan's paper, ending his response with the following:

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Report on the Prince of Wales visit to Northern CA

The Prince and the Peak

By Shepherd Bliss, sb3[at]pon.net

England’s Prince Charles convened a Nov. 7 dialogue in San Francisco on “Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Business Action.” 300 high-level guests from corporations, government, and non-profit groups attended.

“We simply can’t go on as we are,” Prince Charles said to the select audience. He cited statistics and stories about global warming and oil depletion, contending, “Somehow we have to find the courage to reassert the once commonplace belief that human beings have a duty to act as the stewards of creation.”

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An Unorthodox Proposal - Outlaw the gasoline engine

Researching the production of biodiesel from solid waste feedstocks, I came across this article. It mentions diesel/electric hybrids. With biodiesel produced from algae, and only diesel/electric hybrid engines being installed in new vehicles, gasoline demand could be dramatically decreased, or even phased out.

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Action on Climate Protection

Hello, Climate Protection Campaign is launching our blog. This blog is intended to stimulate discussion about what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We are currently working on projects at the local level, but we advocate action at all levels: local, state, federal and international.

What we want to do in this blog is to discuss solutions. We want to know what is working elsewhere in the world...and we want to share our experiences with what is working here in Sonoma County.

Although we will post articles on science and links to basic climate science, our aim is not primarily to discuss the science of global warming and climate change. We are not climate scientists, but we view the science of global warming as basically settled. We have adopted and endorse the findings of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), which are that:

  • The planet is warming
  • Most of the warming in the past 100 years is caused by humans (anthropogenic)
  • The human activities most responsible for warming are emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and deforestation.
  • Emissions of GHGs that are causing global warming are primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels.
  • Significant reduction in GHG emissions is necessary to prevent dangerous changes to the global climate.

In addition to the findings of the IPCC, our view is that meaningful reductions must be accomplished as quickly as possible in order to stabilize the level of atmospheric CO2 as low as possible.

We are looking forward to engaging in discussion with you about how to solve the climate crisis.